Learning patterns and predicting the fear and greed traits is easier today than ever before. I believe this is the outcome of both human evolution — as we tend to predict better than ten years ago — and the fact that many are looking for genuine, authentic relationships and want to get away from loneliness and negativity.
We are able to predict how any system operates with the help of access to tools and technology we have today. Likewise, if you give one prompt to an LLM, you can get the analysis or a framework to predict an underlying pattern.
The spectral illustration above simply describes how we can possibly think, predict, and judge our decisions. We can apply this in any system. I took inspiration from a post I saw on X. This is a reimagined version.
When I apply this in the world of startups — which I think is a human problem too — building a product has become commonplace. It definitely doesn't take much effort anymore: finding a problem statement, crafting a pitch deck, building an MVP — these are a matter of weeks.
Building the business is becoming a much harder problem. The need for trust and relationships is gaining relevance. Today you need to prove to your investor, or team, your capacity and potency — enough to win their trust.
The real deal now: I'm trusting this person — will this team be good enough to carry the vision forward?
These questions double down to a single human-centered problem — because most of the work is now done by machines, the guiding hand has to be carefully handpicked: whether investor, founder, or hiring team.
- Will this team carry the vision?
- How much depth or attachment to the problem?
- Are they doing this just for money?
- What's the execution capacity?
- Fear or greed — which side is this falling on?
- What are the observable traits of each?
- How long can this continue?
- Are they open to evolving toward something big?
Recent discussions among major players center on clear and accurate revenue as the pivotal signal for the startup world. The questions now: has the customer committed to buy? Is it just a letter of intent? Is he buying annually or monthly? Everything is slowly baking toward clarity.
But why does this all matter? Why would a founder or team try to show something they are not?
In my view, the root cause is either fear or greed.
Either they know for real that they won't make it through — and enter analysis paralysis mode — or they are deliberately turning everything toward quick-win schemes: transactional, extremely exit-focused.
All of this is no longer theory. All doubts and speculations can be easily identified from an investor's perspective.
We can have far more clarity on the deeper, personal aspects of a team now — because the rest is no longer a question in a world where machines handle most of the execution.
If we want to win — we need to stay at the center of fear and greed; learn to balance the emotional aspect of any team.